USDA forecast for world markets and beef trade
Global production in 2024 is forecast virtually unchanged from 2023 at 60.4 million tons as falling production in the United States is offset by increases in Australia, Brazil, China, and India. Outside the United States, beef production is forecast to increase 1 percent as higher cattle supplies and competitive prices induce more slaughter. In Australia, total slaughter is forecast to increase 9 percent, boosting beef production by 8 percent. Weights are expected to decrease marginally as the proportion of feedlot cattle slaughtered relative to total slaughter is anticipated to decline in 2024. Brazil production is forecast to increase 2 percent as strong export demand and sluggish calf prices incentivize higher slaughter. China production is forecast to increase 2 percent, driven by the large number of slaughter ready cattle. India production is forecast up 2 percent on increased export demand.
Brazil and Australia Continue to increase Exports
Global exports are forecast marginally higher in 2024 to 12.3 million tons as increases in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and India offset lower U.S. exports. Outside the United States, global exports are anticipated to increase 2 percent. China imports are forecast down 4 percent as domestic consumption is anticipated to remain flat year over year, and production is forecast to increase 2 percent.
As a result, countries with ample exportable supplies will be looking to other export destinations in 2024. Australia exports are forecast 9 percent higher as ample supply and competitive prices will propel shipments to East Asia and North America. Strong U.S. import demand will support increases in Australia exports, as will the anticipated reduction in U.S. exports to key markets in East Asia. Brazil is forecast to remain the world’s largest exporter, but 2024 exports are forecast to increase just 1 percent to 2.9 million tons. Firm demand from key trading partners such as the United States, United Arab Emirates, and the Philippines will likely offset weaker demand from China. India exports are forecast to increase 3 percent on strong demand from key Southeast Asia and Middle East markets, especially Vietnam, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia.
U.S. production and exports are forecast at 12.1 million tons and 1.3 million tons – down 2 percent and 8 percent, respectively. The U.S. cattle herd entered 2024 at the lowest inventory level since 1951 and is anticipated to decline further during the year. Cow slaughter is likely to decline during the year due to lower inventories, but stronger calf prices and assumed favorable forage conditions are expected to support the retention of breeding animals. Lower production will drive reduced U.S. exports. Furthermore, increased production in Australia, Argentina, Brazil, and New Zealand is likely to increase pressure on U.S. exports, as competitive prices in key markets may reduce demand for U.S. beef, particularly in East Asia.
Source: USDA