USDA to forecast global beef production and exports in 2023

USDA to forecast global beef production and exports in 2023

It is expected that the beef production volume in the current 2023 will be approximately the same as in the previous year and will be about 59.1 million tons. Global beef trade is likely to be a little bit higher than in 2022.

USDA to forecast global beef production and exports in 2023

Global production is forecast virtually unchanged in 2023 at 59.1 million tons as falling U.S. production offsets increases in Australia, Brazil, China, and India. Outside the United States, beef production is forecast to increase 1 percent as elevated global beef prices induce more slaughter. Greater feed availability and improved pastures in Australia will support heavier carcass weights, boosting production by 10 percent.

Brazil production is forecast to increase 2 percent as packers slaughter more cattle amid lower calf prices and a firmer domestic market. China production is forecast up 3 percent as the lifting of COVID-related restrictions increases foodservice demand. Lastly, India production is up 2 percent on export demand and marginally higher domestic consumption.

Global exports are forecast fractionally higher in 2023 at 12.1 million tons as lower U.S. exports fully offset growth from Brazil, Australia, and India. Outside the United States, global exports are anticipated to increase 2 percent. While China beef consumption is forecast 2 percent higher, imports are expected to remain flat year on year at 3.5 million tons. Tighter exportable supplies in Argentina and Uruguay will thwart China import growth in 2023. Brazil is expected to increase shipments to China amidst the pullback by other Mercosur suppliers despite losing market access for about 4 weeks after an atypical case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Reduced competition and a weaker real will support a 4 percent increase in Brazil exports to all markets. Australia exports are forecast 13 percent higher as higher supplies and lower carcass prices propel shipments to East Asia and North America. Australia is expected to take market share away from the United States in East Asia. Meanwhile, rising U.S. import demand will support increases to Australia exports. India exports are forecast 2 percent higher on strong price competitiveness in key Southeast Asia and Middle East markets, especially Vietnam, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia.

U.S. production and exports are forecast at 12.2 million tons and 1.4 million tons – down 5 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Entering 2023, the U.S. cattle herd contracted by roughly 3 percent compared to 2022. As 2023 progresses, smaller feeder cattle supplies relative to last year will reduce feedlot placements and, assuming favorable forage conditions, producers are expected to retain more heifers for breeding given strengthening calf prices. Thus, cattle slaughter and beef production are expected to be lower in 2023. Lower production is expected to result in tight exportable supplies.

Concurrently, increased Australia production further dampens the outlook for U.S. exports as lower Australia prices reduce demand for U.S. beef, particularly in East Asia.

Source: USDA