Global production is forecast up nearly 1 percent in 2022 on growth in Australia, Brazil, and India. Australia production is expected to rebound 8 percent as improved pasture conditions have spurred herd rebuilding. 

Beef production will be driven by higher supplies of slaughter-ready cattle next year and an increase in carcass weights driven by a higher rate of male slaughter. Meanwhile, beef production in Brazil is expected to be supported by greater cattle availability and improved margins for slaughterhouses. In India, carabeef production will continue the recovery that began in 2021 after severe supply chain disruptions caused a sharp drop in production during 2020.  

Global exports in 2022 are forecast 2 percent higher due to expectations of continued strong global demand, particularly from Asia. Australia is expected to have higher exports on rebounding production, particularly in the second half of 2022. Meanwhile, Brazil exports are expected to be record large as demand continues to grow in top market China. In contrast, New Zealand exports will be constrained by tighter cattle supplies. Paraguay will likewise see exports contract as harsh weather this year led cattle to be marketed earlier than planned and will reduce availability in 2022. Despite the decline, Paraguay is still expected to achieve its second-highest export total on record.  

U.S. production and exports: Production for 2022 is forecast down 3 percent as tighter cattle supplies weigh on slaughter. Tightening U.S. beef supplies are expected to constrain exports, which are forecast 4 percent lower year-over-year. Meanwhile, production recovery in Australia is expected to increase competition in key Asian markets. However, U.S. exports are expected to remain elevated by historical standards, achieving the second-highest total on record.

Source: USDA