Beef in USA March 2017

This was the third week in a row that the Choice cutout had strong growth as higher middle meat values continued to propel the cutout higher.  The Choice cutout was $2.22/lb., up 7 cents/lb. from last week, but still down 4% from last year.  The Select cutout was $2.14/lb., up 6 cents/lb. from last week and also down 4% from last year.

The Choice/Select spread has now widened to $8.02/cwt, the highest level since the first week of January.  The loin and rib primals were both up 19 cents/lb. from last week.  The rib primal is now at $3.37/lb., down 9% from last year, and the loin primal is now at $3.30/lb., down 3% from last year.  Boneless ribeyes saw the strongest growth in the rib primal, and growth was widespread across the loin primal.  The chuck and round primals averaged slightly higher than last week, but chuck rolls and inside rounds struggled.

50% trim was up 10 cents/lb. from last week to its highest level of the year this year at $1.04/lb.  In both 2014 and 2016, 50% trim values peaked for the year during this third week of March (see chart below).  Weekly estimated beef production was 478.6 million pounds, down 0.4% from last week but up 4.3% from last year.  Year to date production is now up 3.7% with slaughter up 4.8%.

Weekly slaughter was 585,000 head, down 0.3% from last week but up 6.4% from last year.  Live weights were 1,361 lbs., down 2 lbs. from last week and down 16 lbs. from last year.  Dressed weights were steady with last week at 820 lbs., also down 16 lbs. from last year.  Live steer prices averaged up $3.50/cwt from last Friday at $128.75/cwt.  Futures again moved higher compared to the previous Friday: April: $119.33 (+$1.73), June: $109.68 (+$2.18), and August: $103.05 (+$2.40).  

Beef retail values increased by 3% from January to $5.84/lb. in February.  Beef retail value is now 2% year-over-year.  Wholesale values decreased 2% to $2.94/lb. in February from $2.98 in January.  Wholesale value is now down 12% year-over-year.  With the decrease in wholesale values being much steeper than the decrease in retail values, the wholesale-retail price spread remained at elevated levels in February.  The price spread was $2.91/lb. in February up 8% from January and up 10% year-over-year. 

The beef byproduct allowance increased by 3% from January to 30.5 cents/lb.  The beef byproduct allowance is now up 15% from last year and is at the highest level since August 2015.  

Events

BEEF

3/18/2016

3/17/2017

YOY

Choice

2.32

2.22

-4%

Select

2.22

2.14

-4%

Rib

3.69

3.37

-9%

Chuck

1.73

1.67

-4%

Round

1.85

1.82

-1%

Loin

3.41

3.30

-3%

Brisket

1.67

1.53

-8%

Short Plate

1.62

1.55

-5%

Flank

1.43

1.29

-9%

50% trim

1.15

1.04

-10%